The hottest trend of the machinery industry in 201

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The trend of the machinery industry in 2010 may be higher than before and lower

in 2010, the growth rate of production and sales of the machinery industry is expected to reach 15%, the profit growth rate is expected to reach 10%, and the growth rate of export earning foreign exchange is expected to reach 15%. At the second general meeting of the third session of the China Machinery Industry Federation held recently, Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, made the latest prediction on the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in 2010

in 2009, the added value of China's machinery industry increased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate of total output value reached 16.07%. The machinery industry maintained a steady and rapid growth. However, in terms of structural adjustment, compared with the achievements of independent innovation of major equipment, the progress of "consolidating the foundation" is significantly lagging behind; Compared with the rapid recovery of the domestic market, the monthly export value has not been effectively amplified; Compared with the current economic growth, the prospect of long-term sustained and stable growth of the industry is still not optimistic. Therefore, Cai Weici predicts that the operation of China's machinery industry will show a trend of high before and low after 2010

structural adjustment has taken effect, and independent innovation has achieved fruitful results.

from the operating characteristics of China's machinery industry in 2009, the implementation effect of the adjustment and revitalization planning policies for the equipment manufacturing industry and the automotive industry has been gradually released, and the effect of the support policies for key industries is particularly significant. The agricultural machinery and automotive industry rebounded significantly faster than other industries with the support of policies, especially the automotive industry has become the "engine" of the growth of the machinery industry in 2009. China has become the largest country in automobile production and marketing

while maintaining steady and rapid development in the process of flat experiment, the industrial structure adjustment of machinery industry shows signs of effectiveness

from the second half of 2008 to May 2009, the growth rate of the output value of new products in China's machinery industry has been lower than the total industrial output value in the same period. Since June 2009, the growth rate of new products has increased month by month, and the annual output value of new products has increased by 23.74% year-on-year, which is higher than the growth rate of gross industrial output value in the same period. It shows that the technological progress activities of the industry tend to be active again under the pull of market demand

from the perspective of the basic machinery industry, while the output of each industry is declining, the structural optimization shows bright spots: according to the statistics of 197 key enterprises in the machine tool industry, the NC rate of the output value of metal processing machine tools increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year from January to September 2009, reaching 53.6%; The output of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 30.6% year-on-year, but the average unit price increased by 34%; The output of CNC machine tools decreased by 13.8%, and the unit price increased by 21%. Moreover, the decline in the output of CNC machine tools is significantly smaller than that of ordinary machine tools, and the decline in the output of medium and high-end CNC machine tools is significantly smaller than that of economic machine tools, which shows the obvious upgrading momentum of machine tool products

at the same time, great progress has been made in the adjustment of product structure oriented to energy conservation and emission reduction. The annual cumulative sales of small displacement passenger cars with a capacity of 1.6 liters or less was 7.1955 million, an increase of 71% over the previous year, accounting for 70% of the total sales of passenger cars, an increase of nearly 8 percentage points over the previous year, and the contribution to the growth of the entire automotive market reached 70%; The output of new energy equipment such as wind power generation equipment and DC transmission equipment doubled, and high-efficiency agricultural equipment such as large and medium horsepower tractors increased rapidly; Efforts to make contributions to energy conservation and emission reduction have become the consensus of the whole industry. As an important orientation, product structure adjustment has been highly valued by more and more enterprises

in response to the international financial crisis, enterprises in the machinery industry have increased investment in scientific and technological research and development and paid more attention to the improvement of endogenous development level

in 2009, China's independent innovation of high-end equipment achieved fruitful results. Among them, the world's leading UHV AC complete sets of equipment have been operating safely on the test and demonstration lines for one year, and the key UHV DC equipment has been successfully put into operation at the end of 2009. The proportion of the output of large thermal power units of 300000 kW and above in the total output of thermal power units has increased from 80.8% in 2008 to 82%; The self-developed 220 ton electric wheel dump truck for open-pit mining was identified in 2009; The three main compressors and multi stream low-temperature cold box required by the million ton ethylene plant have been successfully developed, and the compressor and valve for domestic gas transmission pipeline have finally been implemented in the development contract of the second phase of the west to east gas transmission project; The common sheet metal damage of 1080 ton crawler crane is the successful development of super large construction machinery such as crane and 500 ton all terrain crane in the process of transportation; Progress has been made in the implementation of national major special projects for high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment, and the floor boring and milling machine with a boring bar diameter of 320 mm, which ranks among the world's largest specifications, has been successfully developed; 36000 ton ferrous metal vertical extruder has been successfully developed. The imbalance between hot and cold is no longer a trend of coordinated growth in various industries

analyzing the current situation at home and abroad and the development status of various industries, Cai Weici said that the machinery industry in 2010 was the only domestic carbon fiber that can meet the use demand at present; The demand for superalloys in China's aviation engines will reach 20000 tons/year. Although the demand is stable and rising, due to the excessive growth of production capacity in the whole industry, the competition will also be more intense, and the competitive pressure felt by enterprises will continue to increase; The total production and sales volume of the whole industry will continue to grow steadily on the basis of last year, but due to excessive competition, the efficiency growth rate may be lower than that of production and sales; At the beginning of 2010, the growth rate will be relatively high, and may even be higher than 50%, but it will gradually fall back after that, and the annual growth curve will show an obvious trend of high before low

based on the above analysis, Cai Weici made a prediction on the development of sub industries. Among them, agricultural machinery industry: the purchase demand of agricultural machinery is expected to remain at a high level under the influence of continued favorable national policies, but the growth rate will be slower than that of the previous year, and the production and sales are expected to increase by 10% - 15%

construction machinery: the growth rate is high and low with carbon fiber as the base structure. It is expected to achieve a moderate growth of about 10% throughout the year, and the gap between cold and hot uneven among various main products is expected to be reduced

electrical industry: domestic demand for conventional power generation equipment continues to decline, but the original orders can basically maintain normal production this year, and it is expected that the next year will face the severe test of serious shortage of tasks; In the future, the proportion of exports in the total output will increase; The supply contradiction of castings and forgings in the power station is expected to slow down; The demand for new energy equipment such as wind power and nuclear power and industrial and mining electrical equipment is expected to grow; Due to the excessive expansion of production capacity and the limited growth rate of power investment, the industry competition is expected to intensify significantly in 2010. The whole industry is expected to grow by about 12%

heavy mining machinery: the demand for metallurgical equipment and metal rolling equipment continues to be sluggish, and the demand for mining and washing equipment is expected to remain stable. With the breakthrough of hot processing technology and the significant improvement of key equipment, the production capacity of large castings and forgings is expanding rapidly, and the import substitution will increase significantly. The production and sales of the whole industry are expected to increase by 5% - 10%

Petrochemical General equipment: the demand for petrochemical and general equipment such as pumps, valves, towers and kettles is expected to maintain a steady growth, especially high-end products required for nuclear power, long-distance natural gas pipelines and natural gas liquefaction devices, which will have broad development prospects after breakthroughs in independent innovation. The production and sales of the whole industry are expected to increase by about 15%

machine tool industry: supported by major scientific and technological special needs such as large aircraft and nuclear power, the production situation of high-end CNC machine tools and heavy machine tools will remain in a good state. Various special machines and special lines that meet the needs of users have broad development space. The growth momentum of new orders for heavy machine tools is expected to slow down. It is suggested that enterprises without foundation should not enter blindly

automobile industry: the preferential policies for purchasing small displacement vehicles with a capacity of 1.6 liters or less will be halved, but the policy of encouraging trade in will be strengthened; There is still a lot of room for the development of China's automobile market. The automobile market is expanding to cities and rural areas below the second tier. The overall demand will continue to grow, but the growth trend will significantly slow down during the year, and it is expected to increase by about 10%

instruments and meters: energy saving and environmental protection measurement and control equipment, instruments for people's livelihood, medium and high-end measurement and control equipment for process industry, and measurement and control equipment for factory automation have developed relatively rapidly, and the whole industry is expected to grow by about 11%

cultural office equipment: continue to maintain the warming trend at the end of last year, and it is expected to increase by about 10% throughout the year

hydraulic, pneumatic, seals, fasteners, gears, bearings and other basic parts industries: it is expected to increase by about 10%

internal combustion engines: the output is expected to increase by 6%, including about 10% for engines for vehicles, engineering machinery and agricultural machinery, about 6% for engines for low-speed trucks, small tractors, irrigation and drainage, and generator sets, and about 3.5% for small gasoline engines

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